Europe on the verge of War

Who could have predicted that after two years of pandemic crisis, Russian president would decide to invade Ukraine and threaten peace in Europe ? The madness of one single man is once again leading the world into the Third World War. Who would have bet 3rdWW would be happening in Europe. Like many I thought it would have been between India and China or some other countries of Asia…

Who could have predicted that after two years of pandemic crisis, Russian president would decide to invade Ukraine and threaten peace in Europe ? The madness of one single man is once again leading the world into the Third World War. Who would have bet 3rdWW would be happening in Europe. Like many I thought it would have been between India and China or some other countries of Asia… Updated on 27/02

The script was already written 15 years ago in Putin’s mind when he was at the Munich security conference reminding the West that Russia might have suffered from the fall of USSR, but was still a big country and would not let the West install forces around Russia. Putin was already known to be this ex secret service strong and brutal new face or Russia, in one word, not a fun person. While the bankruptcy of USSR and the fall of the regime brung Russia from a feared nation to the place of an enemy nobody would care about anymore; the hatred of the West was pushing nationalists to the Presidence. Hatred and thirst of revenge are most probably the motivation Putin…

NATO, the Americans and Ukraine

It was not long ago that Russia was invading Georgia, and this time they are repeating the exact same scenario than in 2008 counting on the passivity of the West.

While the Ukrainian people and army are probably going to me massacred in Kiev like during Warsaw uprising in 1944 by the Nazis, the West is just praying that it will only be Ukraine alone and that War won’t come to European Union.

It is clear given the few statements given by key western countries the last few days, that in their minds they are kind of hoping the invasion will be fast and brief, hoping for only few casualties and that Putin plans is only to install a Pro-Russian government, like in Bielorussia for example… No one will try to help Ukraine or Kiev citizens, while timidly offering help to the Volodymyr Zelensky to help him flee the country.

I would not understand the situation too if I was not living in Poland and now understanding the ex USSR oppressed countries state of mind agains Putin. Ukrainian are proud and ready to die for the idea of freedom, for the idea that Ukraine should stay free from Russian influence and should have their own democracy. While Polish are doing all they can to welcome Ukrainian refugees, give them food and shelter, many Ukrainians are going the other way, to give their life in a hopeless fight in Kiev and Lviv against Russian tanks.

This new war is made of civils, from Europe, either Ukrainian diasporas going back to fight and even European concerned citizens of different countries who decide to go help, to give their lives for an idea of freedom and democracy.

I am surprised that we do not even try to smuggle weapons to give Ukrainians at least a chance to defend themselves against the invader, unofficially.

European Union, USA, and NATO countries are ready to sacrifice Ukraine to avoid War and save peace. I understand their point of view, saving lives and hoping of a diplomatic resolution is often a better choice than counting the dead. Since WW2, no one would have imagine war was this close given nuclear dissuasion.

Juste to put into perspective the size of Ukraine compared to Western Europe:

Size of Ukraine

Huge impact in France on the presidential campaign

President Macron was supposed to disclose his candidacy for re-election in the next few days, it looks like it won’t be his first concern the next few weeks anymore. It was rather surprising how weak his TV declaration tone was compared to the one 2 years ago when he was announcing the first lockdown because of Covid with this now famous sentence “We are at war against an invisible enemy” Now that the enemy is visible we are literally looking the other way, and hoping that the Russian bear won’t get the taste for blood.

The rest of the candidates from Melanchon to Zemmour, were not expecting the war, and were until last week even defending the point of view of Putin regarding Ukraine. The few other candidates program like the ecologist were to reduce army budget and aim for the end of the nuclear power plants. The wake up call was difficult, sorry but not sorry we are not living in a peace and love world anymore.

It’s hard to tell yet if the French have any idea of what’s really playing right now. They seem to be more concerned of the price of gas and inflation that about anything else, while Kiev is only two hours from Paris by plane it still seems far to them.

French embassy is the last one stil open in Kiev, there are around 700 french still there, we were learning last night that the GIGN force was assuring the security of the embassy and that they were ready to evacuate people if necessary.

The French embassy in Kiev

I read today on a few facebook groups for French people in Poland that journalist from Brut. and other newspapers were looking for ways to reach the border, that’s too bad they don’t come with at least medics or supplies…

Poland and the polish people, the first aid

I am very impressed by how fast Polish people are organising help for the Ukrainians. While the Polish government has deployed big effort at the border to register all the refugees and guide them to place where they could shelter, have access to food and psychological help, they seem to be the only one helping. 😢

According to contact in Ukraine, Russia artillery are right now as we speak targeting heavily Kiev and launching missiles.

Missiles targeting buildings in Kiev

The private medical group operating in Poland, Luxmed is gathering meds, food, and basic life supporting tools to be sent to Ukraine. They are also collecting blood to assist the Ukrainian hospitals. My gf is right now offering free psychological support to refugees and giving her time like many others in the stations to help the families who arrive in Wroclaw.

Poland has been welcoming over 120 000 refugees the last few days, with men from 18 to 60 being required to go back to Kiev to fight by the government.

A once in a lifetime occasion for China to invade Taiwan

I am worried for Taiwan today, after retaking Hong Kong back while the West was occupied fighting the pandemic, it would be technically the best moment for them to test the weakness of the West by invading Taiwan. Like for Ukraine, it’s very likely nothing will happen, UK and USA will protest and say it’s bad but who wants to go to war against China today ? No one. like against Russia to save Ukraine.

I am crossing fingers that China will refrain their ambitions but they have the same approach has Putin toward Ukraine, considering it’s their land taken from them and that they should defend their pro China citizens from the regime of Taiwan. What a joke..

An American destroyer has crossed the straits between Taiwan and China yesterday (26/02), a way to say don’t even thing about it to China.

La Chine au coeur de l’actualité du weekend

Les vols Air France suspendus pour deux semaines

Air France se voit punir par les autorités shanghaïennes pour avoir transporté des passagers positifs au coronavirus vers la Chine. La compagnie se voit interdite de vol entre Paris et Shanghai du 10 au 24 mai prochain. Ce n’est pas la première fois que les autorités chinoises sanctionnent la compagnie nationale, en effet, Air France a déjà été interdit de vol pendant une semaine du 23 au 29 novembre dernier.
Pour rappel les autorités chinoises condamnent à ce type de peines les compagnies aériennes si plus de 5 passagers sont positifs au covid lors de leur arrivée en Chine, et cela sur la totalité de leurs vols.
C’est à ma connaissance le seul pays à pratiquer ce genre de mesures, un comble quand on sait que le virus est originaire de Wuhan…

Le parti communiste chinoise retire un post se moquant de la situation en Inde

Le parti communiste a finalement retiré de Weibo le post qui se moquait de la situation terrible que subit l’Inde face à la recrudescence des cas de coronavirus dans le pays. Le montage photo (lien bbc) montre une fusée chinoise au décollage d’un coté et les crématoires indiens de l’autre, avec comme légende de l’image “Allumer un feu en Chine vs Allumer un feu en Inde”… Le post émane d’un compte officiel d’une agence du parti.

Démonstration de force en mer de Chine du Sud

La Chine envoie un porte-avions et sa flotte dans les mers du Sud pour un exercice militaire. À ce jour l’empire du milieu dispose de deux porte-avions dont celui déployé lors de cet exercice – le Shangdong – entré en service en 2019.

Les patrouilles de la flotte américaine dans la zone ont augmentés de 20% depuis l’élection du nouveau président américain. D’un côté les USA veulent montrer qu’ils ne laisseront pas la Chine conquérir de nouveaux territoires en mer du Sud, de l’autre la Chine semble bien décider à tenir tête aux USA dans cette zone composée de plusieurs iles et îlots disputés entre plusieurs pays, et également de Taiwan.

Ce n’est pas sans rappeler la situation politique de Hong Kong, la Chine a su mettre à profit la pandémie mondiale pour faire taire les manifestations pro-démocratie sur l’ancien territoire anglais, ainsi que pour prendre le contrôle politique et enfermer les opposants aux régimes sous couvert de sécurité nationale.